sokolsky.me/health

Health decision model

STD risk QALY calculator

The calculation assumes one is a cishet Caucasian person in the United States. The numbers will be different for other groups/countries and ages. The calculations are for vaginal/oral sex only, with the base model closer to vaginal exposure than oral-heavy exposure.

Perspective

The STI math spreads 3 sex acts/week across the partners you enter. Pregnancy uses a 10-year failure curve with fertility pauses, not a fresh first-year failure rate for every partner.

Pregnancy prevention use

Applies to both the selected no-condom method and the condom comparison.

This parameter varies a lot, so make a pick based off what makes sense for you.

Healthy weeks saved by using condoms

-

Waiting for inputs

- acts/partner 10 years 3 sex acts/week

Estimated healthy weeks lost

Without condoms -
With condoms -

HPV vaccines reduces negative QALYs by

HPV healthy-time loss -

Odds of at least 1 pregnancy

Without condoms -
With condoms -

Projected children

Without condoms -
With condoms -

Breakdown

Estimated healthy weeks lost by condition

*Not an STI/STD. Included because sex can cause pain or injury, trigger UTIs, raise BV risk a bit or lead to yeast infections after antibiotics.

Sources and anchors

Grouped roughly like the assumptions above.

Pregnancy

Testing, oral sex and surveillance

HPV and vaccines

HSV

HIV

Bacterial STIs, M. genitalium and Ureaplasma

BV, UTIs and antibiotic-associated yeast

Other physical sex harms